Transcription
Foreign hi, I'm Kirsty Davidson, a recruitment specialist at Skills Provision. Today I'm going to discuss the international employment situation in Canada. I hope you enjoy this presentation. Canada continues to grapple with pronounced skilled labor shortages driven by an aging population, falling birth rates and and the slow replenishment of domestic talent in the trades sector. An estimated 700,000 skilled tradespeople are expected to retire between 2019 and 2028. The healthcare sector has seen employment grow at approximately 2.5% a year over the past decade, compared to just 0.9% for the overall economy. In agriculture and agri food, over 28,000 job openings went unfilled in 2025 and supply demand mismatches may reach 15% by 2030. The transport sector, notably aviation and trucking, may face shortages of 130,000 workers by 2035. These structural imbalances underscore why immigration has become the linchpin of Canada's labor force growth. In fact, virtually all net labor force expansion now stems from immigration. Canada's federal government is strategically leveraging immigration, both temporary and permanent, to address these shortages. The policy framework reflects that under the 202527 immigration levels plan, Canada targeted 395,000 permanent resident admissions in 2025, down from 483,390 in 2024. Temporary resident targets were set at 367,750, comprising 82,000 under the Temporary Foreign Worker Program and 285,750 through the International Mobility Program and 305,900 students. Immigration now constitutes nearly 100% of Canada's labour force growth. Category based selection within express entry prioritizes candidates with experience in healthcare, STEM trades, transport and agriculture, as well as strong French speakers. Expanding beyond the pure points based model, a related reform as of March 2025, IRCC changed the Express Entry CRS rules, removing some job offer points to deter fraud. Previously, job offers could Yield up to 200 points for senior roles or 50 points for other skilled roles. These have been curbed. Healthcare and social vacancy rates stood at 4.1%, led by shortages in nursing, lab technologists, social workers and others. Accommodation and food posts such as cooks and butchers show 4% vacancy rate. Though attractive sectors, they often lack open work permit eligibility. Construction and trades vacancies reach 3.2%, with carpenters, electricians, plumbers, welders and heavy duty mechanics in high demand. The federal government announced the admission of 14,000 foreign construction workers for 2025. The government's Express Entry category based draws issued around 5,000 ITAs for healthcare and social services roles in 2025. Record high migration among OECD nations, including Canada, has prompted many countries to tighten immigration and student visa policies to address housing and infrastructure stress. Canada has imposed caps on immigration to slow population growth, which helped ease rental pressures but raised concerns about worsening labor shortages. The IMF and experts caution reducing immigration may temporarily alleviate housing strain but risks limiting economic growth and exacerbating labor deficits. Strategic Summary and Outlook Shortages are acute in healthcare, trades, agriculture, transportation, mining and energy, boosted by retirements, low domestic participation and evolving demand. Immigration remains central to filling these gaps, though policy now emphasizes quality over volume, favoring skilled newcomers and retention via in country applicants. Regional demand varies with hotspots in Quebec, Ontario, bc, the Prairies and Atlantic provinces offering targeted opportunities for skilled immigrants. Programmatic adaptation is underway, yet credential barriers and bureaucratic silos persist. A shift towards skills first hiring, credential recognition reform, and better employer education. Collaboration is emerging but needs scaling. Balance policy is vital while housing concerns drive immigration caps, Canada must avoid undermining labor supply just when demand peaks, especially in skilled sectors. In conclusion, Canada's international recruitment and hiring landscape from a skilled Labour perspective in 2025 remains one of both urgent demand and cautious policy design. Skilled labor shortages are widespread and structural immigration, when effectively harnessed, particularly via focused pathways, regional programs and employer partnerships, offers a compelling solution. However, for real long term gains, Canada must resolve credential recognition hurdles, modernize hiring practices to value skills, and ensure that immigration policy supports rather than constricts vital economic needs.
