To me it is a:
Is BREXIT Recruitment’s Red Herring?
As the recruitment market is always in a state of constant flux the trite answer is yes. However let’s dig a little deeper.
- There are 800,000 people on zero hour’s contracts. If they are smart many will be looking to get a full time contract whilst market conditions make this a candidate lead market. This will cause ripples elsewhere.
- Unemployment is down to 5% but in reality this is close to zero in terms of employability as a section of our society simply don’t want to work or are genuinely unable to work and need support from society.
- We have skills shortages everywhere. Probably the widest selection that has been seen since 2004. We all know about the low paid antisocial jobs that Brits don’t want and these are not going to go away when we vote in June. Workers will be wanted but where will they come from? Well as the pundits (the bookies) have the odds at 1/3 to stay in and 9/4 to exit it looks as though on the balance of probability there will be no change although we expect to see the gap narrow before Election Day. This means the inflow from Eastern Europe will continue but the quality of worker should rise if Cameron’s colander concessions hold any water at all.
- OK BREXIT pull off a victory………..and don’t rule it out……….what does it mean. In the short term very little. Amongst the entire rhetoric and scaremongering exit will take a minimum of 2 years to achieve. So we have exited but still need workers………. Not just care, hospitality, food processing, agricultural but skilled people across the construction and mechanical trades but also top guys in Engineering and IT.
- If we have not got the home grown talent where are they going to come from? From outside the shores of the UK. It could be the EU but equally it could be anywhere where the skills are deemed to be a skills shortage under Tier 2 visa arrangements. So the savvy employer will have downloaded from the internet the required forms and will be completing them now.
- Why? If we stay in there will be skills shortages that the EU cannot endlessly supply like care workers and bus drivers and they have to come from somewhere or the UK economy grinds to a halt. Similarly if we leave the workers still have to come from somewhere or is UK PLC expected to accept the inability to produce goods and provide services?
- Certainly the skills shortage situation is a spur to automation and outsourcing but until we have driverless buses in London and robots that can offer care to the elderly, people will be needed.
- Quite understandably most employers will seek to source locally and then nationally before looking internationally but need continuity in terms of labour supply. Voluntary migration is here to stay whatever Canute Cameron may wish to think
Our conclusion is, and in the spirit of the EU, plus ca change, plus c’est la meme chose ; whatever the political complexion we will still need people.